Event-Driven Investment Decisions with AI
This AI trading decision system identifies and evaluates event-driven investment opportunities. It uses live portfolio context, market evidence, and accumulated trading knowledge, with parts of the analytical framework drawn from my Ph.D. dissertation.
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Identify Potential Opportunities
Detect event-driven opportunities around earnings reports, FOMC decisions, company milestones, and other catalysts by analyzing expectation gaps, information diffusion, regime shifts and market repricing.
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Test Whether an Edge Remains
Compare new evidence with what is already priced in, challenge the thesis, and define what would invalidate it.
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Translate the View into a Portfolio Decision
Choose whether and how to act—instrument, timing, size and hedge—within existing portfolio exposure and downside risk.
AI System Architecture
Live context and source evidence feed the agents; investment knowledge provides reusable cases, mechanisms and risk lessons.
INVESTMENT KNOWLEDGE LAYER
- Five Libraries:
- Books, papers & institutional research | Personal Cases | Opportunity Patterns | Execution Playbook | Risk & Failure Modes
- RAG:
- Retrieves original source evidence, decision records and counterexamples.
- Wiki:
- Structures claims and relationships.
CONTEXT & SOURCE EVIDENCE
- Live Portfolio State
- Broker snapshot, cash, holdings, buying power
- Market / Event Evidence
- Prices, filings, news and catalysts
- Source Evidence
- Books, research, cases and personal records
SPECIALIZED AI AGENTS
Macro Agent
Assesses rates, inflation, labor markets, and cross-asset signals.
Company & Event Agent
Evaluates fundamentals, catalysts, and event expectations.
Technical Agent
Tests price structure, volume, levels, and retests.
Regime Agent
Identifies shifts in pricing drivers and market sensitivity.
Market Expectations Agent
Tests what price reflects and what may remain mispriced.
Trading Agent
Frames the decision and integrates competing evidence.
Red-Team Agent
Challenges the thesis, weak evidence, and tail scenarios.
Portfolio & Kelly Agent
Evaluates exposure, sizing, scenarios, and portfolio impact.
DECISION OUTPUT
- Decision Path
- Research, watch, no edge or trade candidate
- Trade Alternatives
- Stock, options, spreads or no action
- Portfolio Implications
- Exposure, sizing and scenario risk
- Human Decision Record
- Action, rationale, outcome and review